Files
PIG-Demo/public/traces/manifest.json
T
karti-ai 2ef62c5670 All four arms captured: the number moves from 0/8 to 4/8
32 recorded rollouts, 8 seeds x 4 agents, every one replaying through the Python
engine to a delta of exactly 0.

  arm          solved   economy  consistency    total
  base-off       0/8      0.000        0.122   0.0244
  base-on        4/8      0.469        0.479   0.4865
  cautious       8/8      0.944        1.000   0.9831
  solver         8/8      1.000        0.719   0.9437

Thinking-off solves none of eight. The same model on the same seeds, sampled
with thinking on, solves four. That is the headline, it is ours, and it needed
no training — which is also why the run is labelled an intervention and names
what was done to it, so a sampling change can never read as a training result.

`cautious` is new and it exists to make the reward editor honest. Until now the
page invited you to move a slider and watch the ranking change, and no slider
changed anything, because the solver dominated a model that solved nothing. A
candidate-only player — most informative guess among words that could still win
— takes consistency outright and pays for it in turns. Now:

  only speed matters      solver 0.9859  cautious 0.9606  -> solver
  shipped weights         solver 0.9437  cautious 0.9831  -> cautious
  punish contradictions   solver 0.8312  cautious 0.9972  -> cautious

The ranking really does flip, on recorded data, with one slider. The first
version of this arm picked the alphabetically-first candidate and opened on
'abaci', which made the policy the counterweight exists to reward look like a
straw man.

190 contract checks pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_019mt6sHQHEnEYrJZvoMCJSB
2026-08-28 16:42:52 -07:00

301 lines
8.3 KiB
JSON

{
"wordle": [
{
"id": "base-off-s0",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s0.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 0
},
{
"id": "base-off-s1",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s1.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 1
},
{
"id": "base-off-s2",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s2.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 2
},
{
"id": "base-off-s3",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s3.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 3
},
{
"id": "base-off-s4",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s4.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 4
},
{
"id": "base-off-s5",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s5.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 5
},
{
"id": "base-off-s6",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s6.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 6
},
{
"id": "base-off-s7",
"label": "Out of the box",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-off-s7.json",
"kind": "recorded",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 7
},
{
"id": "base-on-s0",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s0.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 0,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s1",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s1.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 1,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s2",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s2.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 2,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s3",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s3.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 3,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s4",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s4.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 4,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s5",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s5.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 5,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s6",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s6.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 6,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "base-on-s7",
"label": "Allowed to think",
"path": "/traces/wordle/base-on-s7.json",
"kind": "intervened",
"model": "brain-qwen38-dspark",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 7,
"intervention": "Same model, same seeds, sampled with thinking enabled. No training, no fine-tuning."
},
{
"id": "solver-s0",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s0.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 0
},
{
"id": "solver-s1",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s1.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 1
},
{
"id": "solver-s2",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s2.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 2
},
{
"id": "solver-s3",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s3.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 3
},
{
"id": "solver-s4",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s4.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 4
},
{
"id": "solver-s5",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s5.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 5
},
{
"id": "solver-s6",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s6.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 6
},
{
"id": "solver-s7",
"label": "Best-known play",
"path": "/traces/wordle/solver-s7.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "entropy-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 7
},
{
"id": "cautious-s0",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s0.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 0
},
{
"id": "cautious-s1",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s1.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 1
},
{
"id": "cautious-s2",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s2.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 2
},
{
"id": "cautious-s3",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s3.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 3
},
{
"id": "cautious-s4",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s4.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 4
},
{
"id": "cautious-s5",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s5.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 5
},
{
"id": "cautious-s6",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s6.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 6
},
{
"id": "cautious-s7",
"label": "Never wastes a guess",
"path": "/traces/wordle/cautious-s7.json",
"kind": "generated",
"model": "candidate-only-solver",
"capturedAt": "2026-08-28",
"seed": 7
}
]
}