probe: discover environments from manifests, not a hardcoded list

The environment list was written out four times — probe.py's shim tuple and its
results dict, tests/test_probe.py's ENVIRONMENTS, and ci.yml's wheel loop — so
adding an environment meant four edits and five workstreams collided on three
files. Discovery is now a tomllib scan of environments/*/pyproject.toml plus a
@probes(name) registry, with an optional [tool.arena] tasksets key for one
package that ships several (tera_spatial declares four).

An environment discovered without a registered probe WARNS rather than exits 1,
because interactive environments land their engine before their probe. That is
temporary; it becomes a hard failure with the last registration.

The warning is not a licence to stop being gated. test_probe.py pins the
ungated set to an explicit PENDING_PROBES allowlist that only ever shrinks —
without it, removing a @probes decorator moved the name from the table into a
warning line that already carries five, and every remaining assertion stayed
vacuously true while the environment silently stopped being gated.

Also untracks three environments/*/uv.lock files, which had been failing the
lock-policy step on main.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

probe.py

@@ -62,7 +62,10 @@ the first time and this is what caught it:
                       the first block was the shortcut's luckiest.
 
 Exit code is the API: 1 if any environment's floor is above zero or its ceiling is
-unreachable.
+unreachable. Nothing here is listed by hand — the environments are `environments/*/pyproject.toml`
+and each probe registers itself with `@probes(taskset_id)`, so adding one is a function appended
+at the end of this file. A manifest with no probe is a warning today and an error the day the
+last one is written.
 
     uv run --with regex python probe.py
 """
@@ -76,25 +79,80 @@ import random
 import re
 import statistics
 import sys
+import tomllib
 import types
+from collections.abc import Callable
 from pathlib import Path
 
 ENVS = Path(__file__).parent / "environments"
 
+
+def discover() -> dict[str, list[Path]]:
+    """Taskset id -> the package directories that ship it, read off the manifests.
+
+    The seven names this file used to carry as a literal tuple are `environments/*/pyproject.toml`
+    now: an environment is gated by existing, not by being remembered here. One directory may
+    declare more than one taskset — the Tera bridge ships four spatial tasksets out of a single
+    package — through an optional `[tool.arena] tasksets = [...]`. Absent that key the taskset id
+    is the project name, which is what all seven of the originals do.
+
+    Other sessions create directories under `environments/` while this runs, so a manifest that
+    disappears between the glob and the read is skipped rather than fatal. A manifest that is
+    present and unparseable is still fatal — that is a broken commit, not a race.
+    """
+    found: dict[str, list[Path]] = {}
+    for manifest in sorted(ENVS.glob("*/pyproject.toml")):
+        try:
+            data = tomllib.loads(manifest.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+        except FileNotFoundError:
+            continue
+        wheel = (data.get("tool", {}).get("hatch", {}).get("build", {})
+                 .get("targets", {}).get("wheel", {}))
+        packages = wheel.get("packages") or [manifest.parent.name]
+        names = data.get("tool", {}).get("arena", {}).get("tasksets")
+        if not names:
+            name = data.get("project", {}).get("name")
+            if not name:
+                print(f"warning: {manifest} declares no project.name — skipped", file=sys.stderr)
+                continue
+            names = [name]
+        for name in names:
+            found[name] = [manifest.parent / package for package in packages]
+    return found
+
+
 # Each package's __init__ imports its taskset, which imports verifiers — a heavy dependency
 # this file does not need and should not require. A self-check that only runs once the
 # training stack is installed is a self-check nobody runs. So the package name is registered
 # as a namespace pointing at the source directory, and the leaf modules are imported under
 # it directly: intra-package imports still resolve, __init__ never executes.
-for _pkg in ("redaction_pressure", "canary_trap", "fault_localisation", "schema_migration",
-             "bot_detection", "grand_exchange", "drop_table_inference"):
-    _shim = types.ModuleType(_pkg)
-    _shim.__path__ = [str(ENVS / _pkg / _pkg)]
-    sys.modules[_pkg] = _shim
+for _paths in discover().values():
+    for _path in _paths:
+        _shim = types.ModuleType(_path.name)
+        _shim.__path__ = [str(_path)]
+        sys.modules[_path.name] = _shim
+
+
+# Every floor-and-ceiling function registers itself here under the taskset id `discover()`
+# reads out of the manifest, so adding an environment is one appended function at the end of
+# this file and no edit anywhere else in the repository.
+_PROBES: dict[str, Callable[[], dict[str, float]]] = {}
+
+
+def probes(name: str):
+    def register(fn: Callable[[], dict[str, float]]) -> Callable[[], dict[str, float]]:
+        if name in _PROBES:
+            raise RuntimeError(f"two probes are registered for {name}")
+        _PROBES[name] = fn
+        return fn
+
+    return register
+
 
 TASKS = 24
 
 
+@probes("redaction-pressure")
 def redaction() -> dict[str, float]:
     from redaction_pressure.corpus import build_slices
     from redaction_pressure.scan import measure, parse_rules
@@ -126,6 +184,7 @@ def redaction() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("canary-trap")
 def canary() -> dict[str, float]:
     from canary_trap.corpus import SUBJECTS, build
     from canary_trap.scan import measure, parse_probes
@@ -149,6 +208,7 @@ def canary() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("fault-localisation")
 def fault() -> dict[str, float]:
     from fault_localisation.incident import build, loudest
 
@@ -174,6 +234,7 @@ def fault() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("schema-migration")
 def migration() -> dict[str, float]:
     from schema_migration.run import measure
 
@@ -206,6 +267,7 @@ def migration() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("bot-detection")
 def bots() -> dict[str, float]:
     from bot_detection.accounts import build_slices
     from bot_detection.scan import (
@@ -327,6 +389,7 @@ def bots() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("grand-exchange")
 def exchange() -> dict[str, float]:
     from grand_exchange.book import (
         BUY_BAND, FILL_SHARE, MAX_ITEM_SHARE, MAX_ORDERS, MIN_CROSSINGS, SELL_BAND, TAX,
@@ -605,6 +668,7 @@ def exchange() -> dict[str, float]:
     }
 
 
+@probes("drop-table-inference")
 def drops() -> dict[str, float]:
     from drop_table_inference.estimate import (
         _tail_loss, measure, parse_estimate, reference_estimate,
@@ -749,15 +813,29 @@ def drops() -> dict[str, float]:
 
 
 def main() -> int:
-    results = {
-        "redaction-pressure": redaction(),
-        "canary-trap": canary(),
-        "fault-localisation": fault(),
-        "schema-migration": migration(),
-        "bot-detection": bots(),
-        "grand-exchange": exchange(),
-        "drop-table-inference": drops(),
-    }
+    discovered = discover()
+    if not discovered:
+        print("no environments under environments/*/pyproject.toml — the scan is empty, which is"
+              " a broken checkout and not a clean run", file=sys.stderr)
+        return 1
+
+    orphans = sorted(set(_PROBES) - set(discovered))
+    if orphans:
+        print(f"probe registered for {', '.join(orphans)}, which no manifest declares — a"
+              " renamed or deleted environment", file=sys.stderr)
+        return 1
+
+    # A WARNING and not exit 1, deliberately. A new environment's `pyproject.toml` lands before
+    # its probe does, several sessions share this repository, and a hard gate here turns CI red
+    # for all of them the moment someone scaffolds a directory. This becomes `return 1` in the
+    # same commit that lands `exchange_live()` — the last environment that has a manifest and no
+    # probe. Until then an ungated environment is loud but not fatal.
+    missing = sorted(set(discovered) - set(_PROBES))
+    if missing:
+        print(f"warning: no probe is registered for {', '.join(missing)} — NOT GATED",
+              file=sys.stderr)
+
+    results = {name: _PROBES[name]() for name in sorted(discovered) if name in _PROBES}
     print(f"{'environment':22}{'inaction':>10}{'crude':>9}{'plausible':>11}{'oracle':>9}   verdict")
     failed = False
     for name, r in results.items():